Anglican Church of Southern African

Monthly Investment Report - Pension Fund

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January 2023

Concerns over South Africa's worsening electricity crisis increased at the start of 2023, with rising levels of loadshedding appearing to be a permanent trend and serious effects starting to show in a number of economic sectors.

At its meeting in January, the SARB MPC slowed down the rate of increases, lifting interest rates by only 25bps to 7.25%. Although the statement highlighted the Committee's unease with the recent spike in surveyed inflation expectations and cited
a wide variety of upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB's projection indicates CPI dropping down towards the 4.5% midpoint later this year.

The SARB also drastically cut its growth predictions, with the increased intensity of load-shedding predicted to subtract a considerable 2% from growth in 2023 despite stronger-than-expected December retail sales and a good tourist season.

According to SARB projections, the economy will expand by a meager 0.3% in 2023 (down from 1.1% previously) and barely 0.7% and 1.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

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